OCM Q&A Apr 2026

Today, we’re diving into 10 great questions submitted by you, covering everything from long-term holder behaviour and ETF flows to defining Bitcoin’s true “fair value” and navigating prolonged periods of sideways price action.

A lot to unpack in this one, so let’s get straight into it.

1. Are Long-Term Holders Distributing Into This Range?

Question: Do you see any signs that long-term holders are distributing into this consolidation?

My Thoughts: At the moment, distribution across the network remains relatively controlled. We are simply not seeing the kind of aggressive long-term holder selling that we saw at this cycle’s top. 

When we look at the various LTH cohorts, ranging from those holding for 155 days up to a decade, the amount of profit being realised is actually at some of the lowest levels we have recorded since the previous bear market. High-conviction investors appear perfectly content to sit on their hands rather than rushing for the exit.

Also, LTH supply as a percentage of the total supply has been rising again, moving from 70% to 74% since December. While this suggests a reduction in selling from older hands, it also reflects a significant number of top-buying Short-Term Holders from last year finally graduating into LTH status after 155 days. 

This maturation of the holder base is a healthy structural shift, as it effectively builds a more robust floor of conviction beneath the current price action.

LTH Realised Profit

2. Are ETFs Masking True Market Weakness?

Question: Could ETF inflows be artificially supporting price and actually masking the underlying price weakness?

My Thoughts: They are definitely influencing the market structure, but I would not say they are masking weakness.

What the ETFs are actually doing is providing a consistent, programmatic bid. This naturally dampens downside volatility and fundamentally changes how our macro corrections unfold compared to previous cycles. To put this into perspective, we have only seen a 10% drawdown in cumulative ETF flows versus a much steeper 47% drawdown in the underlying spot price.

The data shows that the average ETF investor is actually holding up incredibly well. Their average cost basis is sitting around $82k, meaning they are only down roughly 19% in a market that has seen significant structural chop. They are simply not panic selling. Also, the ETF flow momentum is now turning positive again after registering its second-largest negative reading. This signals renewed institutional appetite, not an artificial propping up of a weak market.

ETF Dashboard

Open chart

3. Realised Price as the Ultimate Floor

Question: If we see a catastrophic macro event in 2026, could Bitcoin realistically fall back to its Realised Price?